Drivers of Nationally Determined Contributions 国家自主贡献驱动因素

An Exploratory Look at Several Developing Countries 对几个发展中国家的考察

作者:Ryan Dash, Tae-Hyoung Tommy Gim


摘要:《巴黎协定》是管理气候变化的主要国际条约,它要求每个国家提交国家自主贡献 (NDC),其中包括温室气体减排的量化目标。本研究旨在通过案例研究方法,确定一般而言创建 NDC 背后的激励因素以及具体的缓解目标。笔者对来自阿根廷、冈比亚和其他一些发展中国家的主要代表进行了半结构化访谈。访谈回答将在每个国家的文学背景下进行解释。结果表明,NDC的创建过程各不相同,但通常涉及召开会议来教育和让利益相关者参与。大多数情况下,利益相关者知识渊博,能够提出缓解措施或提供数据。最不发达国家为技术支助征聘了国际援助。国际因素是提高缓解目标雄心的最重要驱动因素。具体而言,这包括改善国家形象和获得更高水平国际援助的愿望。国内政治因素也可能具有影响力:政客们可以利用他们的影响力改变国家数据中心,以符合他们自己的议程。


关键词:国家目的性自主贡献,国家自主贡献,巴黎协定,气候变化,国际谈判,联合国气候变化框架公约,决策


Abstract: The Paris Agreement, the principal international treaty governing climate change, requires each country to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) which include quantitative targets for greenhouse gas reductions. This study aims to identify the motivating factors behind NDC creation generally and the mitigation targets specifically using a case study approach. Semi structured interviews were conducted with key representatives from Argentina, the Gambia, and some other developing countries. Interview responses are interpreted in context with literature for each country. Results show that NDC creation processes vary, but generally involve holding meetings to educate and involve stakeholders. In most cases, stakeholders are found to be knowledgeable and able to suggest mitigation actions or to contribute data. Least developed countries recruited international help for technical support. International factors are shown to be the most important drivers of increasing the ambition of the mitigation targets. Specifically, this includes the desire to improve a country's national image and to obtain higher levels of international aid. Domestic political factors are also likely to be influential: politicians could use their leverage to change the NDCs to match their own agenda.


Key: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, Nationally Determined Contributions, Paris Agreement, climate change, international negotiations, United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change, policymaking


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