摘要：由于全球气候变化，降雨模式转变得更加集中，并且更频繁和严重地造成严重破坏。台湾地区多发台风，与居民的风险沟通的重要性已成为防灾政策的主要问题，特别是在弱势河流流域尤为重要。然而，由于缺乏相关的学术研究，使得这一工作进展缓慢。本研究旨在分析风险沟通机制中的关键因素以及它们如何影响适应性行为的决策。首先，本研究构建了风险沟通过程的概念框架，以验证风险沟通如何触发和引导适应性行为。基于该框架的调查问卷被发送到高屏溪流域地区的家庭，以使用结构方程模型（SEM）验证其效用。在此框架的基础上，进行了实证分析，利用多项Logistic回归分析了影响适应行为决策的关键因素。结果表明，适应行为受到内部灾害意识以及风险沟通机制和外部环境的影响。通过家人，朋友，邻居和地方政府的重要沟通渠道非常有效。影响适应行为决策的关键因素是灾害意识和适应行为，对灾害和适应行为有较高认识的人更有可能具有积极的适应行为。此外，由于环境，风险沟通模式和社会经济属性的相互作用，来自不同社区的人们具有不同的适应行为。在实证结果的基础上，提出了一些风险沟通措施，以改进防灾策略。
关键词：风险沟通，自适应行为，结构方程模型，多项Logistic回归
Abstract: Due to global climate change, rainfall patterns have become more centralized and are causing serious damage more frequently and heavily. After the experiences of typhoons in Taiwan, the importance of risk communication with residents, especially in the vulnerable river watershed area, has become the main issue of disaster prevention policy; however, this effort is frustrated by the lack of related academic research. This study aims to analyse key factors in risk communication mechanisms and how they influence the decision-making of adaptive behaviours. Firstly, this study builds a conceptual framework of the risk communication process to determine how adaptive behaviours are triggered and guided by risk communication. Questionnaires based on this framework were sent to households in the Kaoping River watershed area to verify its utility using a structural equation model (SEM). Based on the framework, an empirical analysis was performed to analyse the key factors influencing decision-making of adaptive behaviours using multinomial logistic regression. The results show that adaptive behaviours are affected by internal awareness of disaster and by risk communication mechanisms and the external environment. The crucial communication channels through family, friends, neighbours and local governments are highly effective. The key factors influencing decision-making of adaptive behaviours are awareness of disaster and adaptive behaviours. People with higher awareness of disaster and adaptive behaviours are more likely to have positive adaptive behaviours. Furthermore, due to the interaction of environments, risk communication patterns and socioeconomic attributes, people from different communities have different adaptive behaviours. Based on the empirical results, some risk communication measures are proposed to improve disaster-prevention strategies.
Key: Risk communication, Adaptive behaviours, Structural equation modelling, Multi-nominal logistic regression
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