关键词：洪水，发展，空间计划，SWAT模型，低风险
摘 要：空间规划是指导未来发展并减少城市山洪暴发风险的关键工具。这项研究使用SWAT分析法对克杜鲁斯下游区域进行了地表径流模拟分析。SWAT分析是一种水文分析，用于测量降雨的地表径流，并考虑土地用途、土壤类型、气候数据、地形和相关基础设施系统。根据模拟，当前有四个子汇水区正在遭受山洪泛滥。如果该计划中的所有措施（排水和其他基础设施）都得到成功实施，泗水的详细空间规划（RDTR）可使该市的洪水总量减少51％。然而，由于预算和土地购置有限，这些措施的执行仍然令人怀疑。假如这一计划未能成果实施，计划中的开发将导致更高的地表径流，使泗水更容易遭受洪灾。因此，泗水需要多样化其减少山洪暴发风险的方法，以确保该计划将来能够实现低风险城市。
注：泗水，印度尼西亚第二大港口
Abstract:Spatial plans are key instruments in directing future developments and reducing a city’s flash flood risk. This study conducts a surface runoff simulation using SWAT analysis in the Kedurus catchment area. SWAT analysis is a hydrological analysis to measure surface runoff from precipitation with consideration of land uses, soil types, climatic data, topography and related infrastructure systems. Based on the simulation, four sub-catchment areas are currently experiencing flash flooding. Surabaya’s detailed spatial plan (RDTR) could reduce the total flood volume in the city by fifty-one per cent if all measures (drainage and other infrastructures) in the plan are implemented successfully. Nevertheless, the implementation of the measures is still questionable due to limited budget and land acquisition. In the case of plan failure, the planned developments will cause higher surface runoff, putting Surabaya is at higher risk of flooding. Therefore, Surabaya needs to diversify its flash flood risk reduction approach to ensure that the plan will achieve a low-risk city in the future.
Key: Flash Flood, Development, Spatial Plan, SWAT Model, Low Risk
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