关键词：交通基础设施、市场潜力、出口、演进、路径依赖
摘 要：大量研究得出结论，城市产业演进依赖于与技术相关的供给侧。然而，这样的产业演进也可能受到与市场力量相关的需求侧的影响。为了填补这一空白，本研究旨在考察由市场潜力和市场分割反映的市场力量是否也对区域产业多元化有显著影响，以及这种影响是否在中国不同地区之间存在差异。本研究所用数据为海关记录的出口报关数据。引入PROBIT二元变量模型，考察了技术关联性、市场动量、市场分割对区域产业多元化的影响。结果表明，出口产业多元化不仅受到技术关联性的正向影响，而且还受到市场潜力和市场分割的正向和负向影响。值得注意的是，在市场潜力较低的地区，技术关联性对出口产业创新的影响减弱，而在市场细分程度较高的地区，技术关联性对出口产业创新的影响增强。此外，我们还发现，技术关联性的影响在较发达的城市中减弱，而市场潜力和市场分割的影响相对普遍。在理论上，本文拓展了演化经济地理学的框架。我们从供给侧和需求侧两方面来理解产业创新的影响因素，而不是以往大多数研究中仅从供给侧的角度来理解产业创新的影响因素。实践上，本研究为边缘地区的产业演进指明了一条新的发展路径。
Abstract:Numerous studies conclude that urban industrial evolution depends on the technological relatedness-associated supply side. However, such industrial evolution may also be affected by market force-related demand side. To fill this gap, this research aims to examine whether market force, reflected by market potential and market segmentation, also has significant impacts on the diversification of regional industries, and whether such impacts differ among different regions of China. The data used export customs declaration data recorded by customs offices. We introduce the PROBIT binary variable model to explore the effects of technological relatedness, market motential, market segmentation on diversification of regional industry. The results show that the diversification of export industries was not only positively affected by technological relatedness, but also impacted by market potential and market segmentation positive and negative, respectively. Notably, the impact of technological relatedness on the innovation of export industry was weakened in areas with low market potential but strengthened in those with high market segmentation. Moreover, we found that the effect of technological relatedness was weakened in more developed cities, while the effects of market potential and market segmentation were relatively universal. Theoretically, this paper expands the framework of evolutionary economic geography. We understood the influential factors of industrial innovation from both the supply and demand side, instead of the solely supply side in most previous studies. Practically, this study points out a new development path for the industrial evolution of marginal areas.
Key:Transportation infrastructure, Market potential, Export, Evolution, Path dependence
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