关键词：土地利用和土地覆盖 (LULC)、城市增长、城市蔓延、锡亚尔科特
摘 要：城市增长是一个世界性现象，城市化正在迅速增长，特别是在发展中国家。无管理城市化的高速发展以及随之而来的低密度城市蔓延给全球大多数大城市带来了严峻挑战。这些生长特征主要导致土地利用的随意变化，导致农业损失。本研究采用综合方法分析巴基斯坦锡亚尔科特的城市增长模式。利用陆地卫星数据，研究了28年（1990-2018年）来土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）的变化。估计了在这段时间内农业面积转化为建筑面积。此外，还进行了时空饱和度分析，以进一步分析城市增长的性质。然后将这一变化分析与先前城市总体规划中引入的城市增长战略进行比较。结果表明，在1990-2018年间，锡亚尔科特市的建筑面积从2786.49公顷（28.89%）增加到7191.63公顷（74.56%）。相比之下，农业面积已从69.5%降至24.84%。同样，饱和值也从0.85降至0.75，表明城市正朝着城市蔓延的方向发展。政策审查和访谈结果表明，缺乏对城市总体规划实施的关注，这有助于锡亚尔科特的带状发展。该研究为有关城市规划当局控制锡亚尔科特的城市蔓延提供了建议。
Abstract:Urban growth is a worldwide phenomenon, and urbanisation is increasing rapidly, particularly in developing countries. The high pace of unmanaged urbanisation and consequent low-density urban sprawl poses severe challenges to most big cities globally. Such growth features are primarily contributing to haphazard changes in land uses, leading to agricultural loss. This research adopts an integrated approach to analysing the urban growth patterns in Sialkot, Pakistan. It utilises Landsat satellite data and examines the change of land use and land cover (LULC) over 28 years (1990 - 2018). It estimates the agricultural area converted into built-up area during this time frame. Moreover, a spatiotemporal saturation analysis is also performed to analyse the nature of urban growth further. This change analysis is then compared to urban growth strategies introduced under previous urban master plans. The results indicate that the built-up area of Sialkot city has increased from 2,786.49 ha (28.89%) to 7,191.63 ha (74.56%) during the years 1990 - 2018. In comparison, the agriculture area has reduced from 69.5% to 24.84%. Similarly, the saturation value has decreased from 0.85 to 0.75, depicting the city is moving towards urban sprawl. The policy review and interview results indicate a lack of focus toward implementation of urban master plans, which has contributed to ribbon development in Sialkot. The study provides recommendations for concerned urban planning authorities to control urban sprawl in Sialkot.
Key:Land Use & Land Cover (LULC), Urban Growth, Urban Sprawl, Sialkot
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