关键词：Torqabeh城市，空间扩散，空间分析，城市横向扩张，中心核心
摘 要：尽管文献中提到城市的横向扩张是核心区衰落和不稳定的原因之一，但本研究旨在通过使用空间分析模型，如Getis-Ord-Gi和分组分析，以及空间扩散方法，表明这一结论在小城市中有所不同。研究区域位于伊朗东北部的托卡贝市，人口20998。自2006年以来，该市经历了快速的实体扩张，年增长率为5.27%。研究变量包括人口数量、女性数量、老年人、年轻人、就业者、失业者和文盲。该分析在1996年、2006年和2016年的1476个城市街区进行。结果表明，2006年以前，作为“热点”的核心区是所有人口群体的起源，与其他城市地区有明显区别。然而，2006年之后，具有“传染性扩散”主导模式的人口群体离开了中心核心，并在其周围定居。这些变化的结果并没有显示出Torqabeh核心因快速物理扩张而衰落和不稳定的迹象。这可能是由于新区未能发挥出人口群体空间扩散目的地的作用，以及中央核心区的位置没有从“热点”转变为“冷点”。另一方面，人口群体从中心核心向周边地区扩散，与Torqabeh的中心相连，导致这些地区与中心核心区相似，并表明与大城市的中心核心变化相比，该市的状况有所不同。
Abstract:Although the horizontal expansion of cities is mentioned in the literature as one of the reasons for the decline and instability of the central core, this study intends to show, by using spatial analysis models, such as Getis-Ord Gi and Grouping Analysis, and the spatial diffusion approach, that this conclusion differs in small cities. The study area is Torqabeh City, located in the northeast of Iran with a population of 20,998. Since 2006 the city has experienced rapid physical expansion with an annual growth rate of 5.27%. The research variables were population number, number of women, elderly, young, employed, unemployed and illiterate. The analysis was performed on 1,476 urban blocks across 1996, 2006 and 2016. The results indicated that before 2006, the central core as a "hot spot" was the origin of all population groups and was distinct from other urban areas. However, after 2006, population groups with the dominant pattern of "contagious diffusion" left the central core and settled around it. The outcomes of these changes did not show signs of decline and instability of the central core of Torqabeh in response to rapid physical expansion. This may be due to the failure of the new areas to play the role of a destination for the spatial diffusion of population groups and the lack of change in the position of the central core from a "hot spot" to a "cold spot". On the other hand, the diffusion of population groups from the central core to the peripheral areas, connected to the core in Torqabeh City, caused these areas to be similar to the central core and indicated the different condition of this city when compared to central core changes in big cities.
Key:Torqabeh City, Spatial diffusion, Spatial analysis, Urban horizontal expansion, Central core
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