关键词：洪水、整合、风险地图、空间句法
摘 要：洪水就像一个无声的杀手。虽然小洪水可能看起来无害，但当它们变得巨大时，可能是致命的。例如，2015年，印度尼西亚Pontianak洪灾造成的年损失达到3000万美元，到2055年可能会增加到8360万美元。为了应对这些事件，我们需要通过绘制洪水风险图并比较2020年的当前脆弱性状态和2050年的未来脆弱性状态来评估城市的脆弱性。本研究采用定量研究方法，利用变量和测量方法来指示Pontianak每个地区的脆弱性状态。变量包括疏散路线效率和避难所容量，这些变量分别代表人们疏散的容易程度和避难所的充分性。疏散路径效率采用空间句法方法积分测度，遮蔽能力由数据和简单方程确定。象限图用于记录两次测量的结果并显示漏洞。这项研究预测了2050年的人口，并重复测量以预测未来的变化。通过比较Pontianak市2020年和2050年的洪水脆弱性，本研究发现Pontianak市对洪水的抵御能力将变得更强。这一发现的原因是实施了通往Pontianak市的环路。环城公路将大大改善城市的疏散路线。然而，容量率下降，这应该作为一个严重的风险来处理。
Abstract:A flood is like a silent killer. Although small floods may appear harmless, they can be deadly when they become massive. For example, the annual damages from flooding in Pontianak, Indonesia reached 30 million dollar in 2015 and could increase to 83.6 million dollar by 2055. To counter these events, we need to assess the vulnerability of a city by making a flood risk map and comparing the current vulnerability state in 2020 and the future vulnerability state in 2050. The present study involved quantitative research using variables and measurements to indicate the vulnerability state of each district of Pontianak. The variables consisted of evacuation route efficiency and sheltering capacity, with these variables representing how easily people can be evacuated and the sufficiency of shelter, respectively. The efficiency of evacuation routes was measured by integration measures from space syntax methods, while sheltering capacity was determined by the data and simple equations. A quadrant diagram was used to record the results of both measurements and present the vulnerability. This research projected the population in 2050 and repeated the measurements to predict future changes. By comparing the flood vulnerability of Pontianak City in 2020 and 2050, this research found that Pontianak City will become more resilient against flooding. The reason for this finding is the implementation of a ring road to Pontianak City. The ring road will significantly improve the evacuation route of the city. Howeover, the capacity rate decreased, which should be addressed as a serious risk.
Key: Flood, Integration, Risk Map, Space Syntax
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