关键词：老年人，人口老龄化，活动老龄化，步行，物理环境，多层次回归模型，中国
摘 要：可以说，主动出行(AT)对积极的老龄化很重要。研究利用2015年厦门市居民出行调查数据和地理数据，构建了一套多层次回归模型，分析了社区层面的建筑环境对厦门市60岁及以上老年人日常生活倾向、频率和时间三个方面的影响。研究结果表明，建筑环境确实会影响老年人的行为。土地利用组合、交叉口密度、公交线路密度与主动出行(AT)呈正相关关系，而与商业中心距离呈负相关关系。人口密度与老年人的主动出行(AT)行为无显著相关性。土地利用结构是最显著的建筑环境变量。各种稳健性检验证实了关键发现的合理性。本文的研究为我国“积极应对人口老龄化”的国家战略提供了现实启示。
Abstract:Arguably, active travel (AT) is important for active aging. Using data from the Travel Survey of Xiamen Residents 2015 and geodata, this study develops a set of multilevel regression models to scrutinize the effect of the neighborhood-level built environment on three AT outcomes (daily AT propensity, frequency, and time) of older adults aged 60 years or above in Xiamen, China. Its results show that the built environment truly shapes the AT behavior of older adults. Land use mix, intersection density, and bus route density have a positive association with AT, whereas the distance to the commercial center has a negative association. Population density has no significant association with the AT behavior of older adults. Land use mix is the most significant built-environment variable. Various robustness checks confirm the plausibility of the key findings. This study provides practical implications for China’s national strategy of “actively addressing population aging.”
Key: Older People, Population Aging, Active Aging, Walking, Physical Environment, Multilevel Regression Model, China
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